Long-range weather forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting another active hurricane season in the Atlantic this year, with as many as 13 to 19 named storms developing.
The government forecasters say warmer-than-average water temperatures will be one of the key factors in enhancing the number of tropical storms and hurricanes that develop in the Atlantic hurricane basin.
Other factors include the continued "ENSO-neutral conditions‚" which result when there’s no active El Niño or La Niña climate pattern influencing storm activity in the Atlantic.
NOAA forecasters also say more storms may form this summer because of weak wind shear “and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes.”
“All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation,” the agency noted.
The Atlantic hurricane basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

NOAA forecasters are predicting 13 to 19 named storms developing in the Atlantic hurricane basin this year, with 6 to 10 of those turning into hurricanes. Of those, 3 to 5 are expected to strengthen into major hurricanes, which cause the most destruction.NOAA
During a press briefing Thursday, forecasters from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said there’s a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of below-normal activity.
The forecasters are projecting 13 to 19 named storms developing in the Atlantic hurricane basin this year, with six to 10 of those turning into hurricanes.
Of those hurricanes, the forecasters believe three to five will strengthen into major hurricanes — with top sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.
Based on averages during the 30-year stretch from 1990 to 2020, the “normal” Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, with seven of those becoming hurricanes and three turning into major hurricanes (Category 3, Category 4 or Category 5) that cause the most destruction.
Three to four named storms typically affect the U.S. during hurricane season — which officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but sometimes produces named storms as early as April or May.
In an early forecast issued in March, AccuWeather predicted 13 to 18 named storms this year, including seven to 10 hurricanes, three to five major hurricanes, and three to six direct impacts on the United States.
AccuWeather forecasters expressed concerns that the warm water temperatures could result in average storms rapidly intensifying into powerful, destructive hurricanes before making landfall.
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Stories by Len Melisurgo
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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com or on X at @LensReality.