N.J. is suddenly center of America’s political universe as governor’s race catches fire

Tom Martello writes a regular column about the 2025 race for New Jersey governor.

With the big primary for governor less than three weeks away, New Jersey is suddenly at the center of America’s political universe in ways that can tick off voters who already proclaim crankiness as part of their Garden State DNA.

Consider what’s happened since we last touched base just a week ago:

Did you watch the “Saturday Night Live” finale? It was rife with Jersey jokes, including one about the since-settled NJ Transit strike and an entire segment on the continuing dilemma at the Newark airport.

That chaotic scrum at the federal immigration detention center in Newark a few weeks ago where Newark Mayor and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ras Baraka was arrested for trespassing? Donald Trump‘s federal prosecutors dropped the charges against Baraka, but it’s still a scalding hot national story after they hit a rookie New Jersey congresswoman who was at the scene with assault charges that could carry 16 years in prison.

The sirens are blaring over the impact of Medicaid cuts as Trump pushes a federal budget that slices so much to keep his tax cuts alive.

Democrats scrambling, Trump raging

Back at the Statehouse, Democrats are scrambling in their election year quest for “affordability” as they try to escape voter wrath over taxes and delay big electric rate increases. And they just got hit with another doozy: Nearly half a million public workers face another big increase in what they pay for health benefits, with officials putting part of the blame on heavy use of O-O-Ozempic.

To top it off, Jersey’s favorite son, Bruce Springsteen, is calling out Trump at his concerts across the pond, prompting the president to hit back by describing the Boss as a “dried out prune.”

So yeah. Lots happening. In New Jersey.

I’ve been telling you for the last two months how all eyes are going to be focused on Jersey’s governor’s race, when you get the chance to vote on what will be a huge referendum on how Trump is doing heading into his midterm test in 2026. That attention isn’t merely coming this fall — this proves it’s already here. Case in point: CBS News just did a segment with NJ Advance Media’s Brent Johnson breaking down this crazy, Trump-driven race.

And now that the eyes of the nation are really turning here, the stakes feel even higher as the candidates in the primary for governor scrap for every vote. The big question for the fall is whether Jersey voters will be crankier at the Democrats who have been running things for eight years in Trenton — or with Trump’s hand-picked candidate.

Jersey Democrats have that worried look on their faces, knowing they’ll get blamed for anything bad on their party’s watch (even Newark airport) and that the unsolved problems with energy rates, health benefits prices, taxes, the high cost of housing and NJ Transit have been festering for a long time. These are softballs right down the middle for Republicans, who are already mocking Gov. Phil Murphy‘s contention that he’s improved NJ Transit after all those summers of hell.

Dems target Sherrill, she goes after Ciattarelli

It’s why all half dozen hopefuls for governor are trying to distinguish themselves from the Democrats now in charge in Trenton, notably Murphy. It ranges from the milder “I’ll be my own governor” to the sharp criticism leveled by Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop.

As the Democratic primary begins its home stretch, we’re seeing the first negative ads of the campaign, and they are aimed at U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill. She has the backing of many party leaders and is considered the frontrunner even as all the candidates still have a chance to ride their distinct bases to victory on June 10.

The first came from Baraka, who has targeted Sherrill as the candidate of the power brokers all campaign long. The next ad was released by a committee backing another progressive, Fulop, who blames high taxes and energy bills on Murphy and says Sherrill will be no different.

Baraka and Fulop are second and third behind Sherrill in a poll released last week by StimSight Research, founded by former Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. He told me that right now, Sherrill has “the broadest combination of lanes of all the candidates out there … and has the best favorability rating of the entire field.”

Murray added that “the progressive lane can be large enough in this crowded field to win the nomination, but you’ve got to own that lane outright.” And it’s now split between Baraka and Fulop.

Sherrill has also targeted a specific candidate in a new ad, but it’s not a Democrat. She goes after Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a sure bet to win the GOP primary after Trump endorsed him. The ad warns “MAGA is coming for New Jersey” and that Trump brags Ciattarelli “is now one hundred percent MAGA!”

Everyone’s watching

As the race heats up, the charges against U.S. Rep. LaMonica McIver for allegedly shoving ICE officers amid the chaos as they moved to arrest Baraka is putting Jersey front and center in a national debate. Trump has called her “out of control” as some Republicans in Congress want her expelled.

McIver and Democrats say this is a politically motivated and the kind of intimidation used by fascists. It is being dissected by the national media and will likely lead to a showdown over the separation of powers between Congress and the executive branch.

Of course, all the Democrats in the race have lambasted the president for all kinds of reasons, hoping Trump becomes an albatross for Ciattarelli in the fall, especially if the national economy tanks. If that doesn’t happen, the Dems are in trouble.

But first things first. We’ve got the Memorial Day weekend and then only two weeks to find out which Democrat will lead that charge. And you can bet the nation will be watching.

Previous columns:

• Trump railroaded the N.J. governor debates in one fell swoop. What happens now?
• Did Baraka arrest just win him the N.J. Democratic primary for governor?
• The Dems have an insanely tight race for N.J. gov — and Trump is living rent-free in their heads
• Oppose Trump and still become N.J.’s next Republican governor? This candidate must be joking.
• N.J. governor’s race is tighter than ever among Dems. Here’s who has the edge.
• Jack Ciattarelli will be N.J.’s next governor (unless Trump screws him)
• Trump and America’s fate rests on N.J.’s momentous gov election. My new column is all you need.

Looking for even more N.J. political coverage? Try Brent Johnson’s new newsletter: What Makes Jersey Run.

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Tom Martello may be reached at tmartello@njadvancemedia.com.